A new poll has Republicans ahead in key statewide races by slim margins. Several key races are statistically tied.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs poll also posted a key benchmark not addressed by other polls: many say they aren’t confident in the election process or the state’s or counties’ administration of it.
Only 25% of Texas likely voters say they are “very confident that the November 2026 election will be conducted fairly and accurately” while 45% say they are somewhat confident, 22% not too confident, and 8% not at all confident, according to the new poll.
Only half of Texas likely voters say they are very confident that all U.S. citizens who want to vote in the November 2026 election will be able to do so; 27% said they are somewhat confident, 17% not too confident, and 6% not at all confident.
The sentiment comes after problems have been reported for months with the state’s voter registration system that left a backlog of more than 500,000 registrations in counties statewide. The state has since said the problem is corrected and a record more than 19 million Texans are registered to vote, The Center Square reported.
The majority polled also expressed concern about noncitizens voting.
The majority polled, 86%, support requiring all voters to show a photo ID when voting in person; 76% support automatically registering all U.S. citizens to vote; 52% support having federal law enforcement officers at polling locations.
The survey contacted 2,000 Texas registered voters expected to vote in the November 2026 midterm elections. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.19%.
When it comes to the direction of the country, 59% polled said the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction; 55% said Texas is.
Fifty-four percent of likely Texas voters polled said they have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, after Trump won Texas three times. Trump’s economic policies have been identified in multiple polls as the top reason why many Texas voters have soured on him and his endorsed candidates, The Center Square reported.
Similar to other polls, the Hobby poll has statewide races statistically tied. The difference it is has Republicans leading in all but one race, instead of Democrats.
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is leading his Democratic opponent state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46%.
In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is leading Democrat state Rep. Vikki Goodwin 47% to 42%.
In the race for attorney general, two state senators are running, with Republican Mayes Middleton leading Democrat Nathan Johnson 47% to 42%.
In the race for Texas comptroller, incumbent Republican Don Huffines is leading Democrat state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt 47% to 40%.
In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham is leading Democrat Benjamin Flores 47% to 40%.
In the race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner, Republican Nate Sheets is leading Democrat Clayton Tucker 46% to 40%.
In the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, Republican Bo French is leading Democrat Jon Rosenthal 45% to 43%.
The outlier is the U.S. Senate race where Democrat state Rep. James Talarico is leading Attorney General Ken Paxton, 48% to 46%. This is consistent with every poll conducted in Texas and nationally. The only difference is the margin by which Talarico is leading Paxton.
Early voting is underway through Oct. 30.