U.S. Sen. Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman are favored in two polls released in the last week ahead of South Carolina’s U.S. Senate special Republican primary on Aug. 11.
Graham led the poll from the Trafalgar Group released Friday with 27%. Norman and U.S. Rep. Russell Fry each snagged 17%.
Norman led the poll from the Emerson College Polling Center released Thursday with 22%. Graham was next at 19%.
Nine Republicans are seeking the seat formerly held by Sen. Lindsey Graham. He died July 11, two days after his 71st birthday from an aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. If no candidate nets 50% plus one vote for a majority, a runoff is scheduled in two weeks later on Aug. 25.
On Nov. 3, Charlston pediatrician Dr. Annie Andrews and Libertarian Kasie Whitener face the survivor in a state splashed with red at the state and federal levels.
Darline Graham is the younger sister of Lindsey Graham and was appointed to finish his term by Gov. Henry McMaster. She’s got the support of second-term Republican President Donald Trump for the six-year term.
Norman, finishing his fifth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, was unsuccessful running for governor in the June primary. He finished fourth.
Fry is already ticketed for the Nov. 3 ballot in a reelection bid for the 7th Congressional District. A Senate primary win would cause another shakeup before Nov. 3.
Mark Sanford, former governor and U.S. House member, was fourth in both polls.
Trafalgar polls and surveys originated in 2016. It is based in Atlanta; does release methodology for its polling contrary to published reports; and boasts of an “approach to polling” that “is markedly different from most of the industry.” RealClear Politics named it the best polling firm of the 2016 presidential race in a remarkable rookie of the year accomplishment.
The Emerson College Polling Center in 2012 became a nationally-ranked entity. It bills itself as having started as a classroom exercise that today “is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to accurately reflecting populations through public opinion research. Emerson College Polling conducts research on civic behavior, polling methodology, public health, and public policy. “
Duke Buckner, Mark Lynch, Mark McBride, Samuel Shepherd and Glenda Gail Parker are the other candidates. Filing to run but not certified for a spot on the ballot by the state Republican Party were Darius Mitchell, Clark Neilson and Danny Ford II.
South Carolina is emblematic of the Deep South’s change from blue to red over the last half century. This primary winner will be heavily favored in November.
In Congress, Sen. Fritz Hollings was appointed to fill an unexpired term in 1966 and won reelection six times before retiring in 1998 – the last Democrat from the state in the chamber. Republican Sen. Tim Scott succeeded Republican Jim DeMint in that seat in the 2012 election and remains entrenched.
Darline Graham’s seat has been in Republican hands even longer. Lindsey Graham succeeded the legendary Sen. Strom Thurmond, the former Democrat when elected in 1956 who changed to the Republican Party in 1964 and won six of seven reelections in red.
Lindsey Graham’s bid for a fifth term, had he won in November, would have meant the seat for three quarters of a century would have been occupied by just two men.
The last Democrat to win the governor’s office, Jim Hodges in 1998, was also the last one-term governor. It’s all the way back to the 1978 and 1982 elections of Richard Wilson Riley to find the Democrat before Hodges.
That’s a definitive turn in the last half century of elections from those of 1868 through 1970. Over those 102 years, a Democrat won the governor’s race every time.
Republicans have also dominated statewide offices for more than a decade. And they’ve done so in districts.
Today’s state Senate is 34-12 Republican majority, and the House of Representatives is 88-36 Republican majority. Republicans have had majorities for seven four-year cycles in the Senate, dating to 2000, and 16 two-year cycles in the House, dating to 1994.