With two weeks until the 2026 midterm general elections, forecasters are predicting Democrats will take a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, winning as many as 232 seats.
Discontent with President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress has surged while gas prices remain at a record high and momentum shifts to favor Democrats in Congress. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Polling Center, told The Center Square he expects Democrats to gain a majority of at least 225 seats in Congress and as many as 232 seats.
Democrats currently hold 214 seats in the U.S. House. In order to win control of the chamber, a party must win 218 seats. In order to pass legislation without members of the opposing party, Democrats would need to gain 290 seats in the U.S. House.
Olsen compared the average of generic congressional ballot polling – whether voters would choose one party over another rather than a specific candidate – and compared it to the presidential margin of victory in the prior election.
He found a model that aligned with actual results in the previous midterm elections. For the 2022 midterm elections, the model predicted Republicans would take 219 congressional districts. Republicans accounted for 222 seats in the U.S. House in 2022.
“If you assume 100% partisanship voting, you come within a few seats of the actual outcome,” Olsen told The Center Square. “Partisanship is the overwhelming consideration that determines who wins, not the individual candidate’s qualities.”
The Cook Political Report ranks 21 races for the U.S. House as “toss ups,” which means a candidate from either party has a good chance of winning. Some of the races listed as toss ups were redrawn to favor Republican candidates in the midterm elections.
Across the country, 16 U.S. House races were redrawn to favor one party over the other in the U.S. House. As many as 10 of these races were redrawn to favor Republican candidates in the midterm elections.
However, Olsen said Trump’s rising disapproval amid the ongoing U.S. military conflict in Iran has motivated voters across the country to turn out against Republicans. Without redistricting, he said Democrats could lead Republicans by 33 to 35 U.S. House seats.
“It takes more seats out of the range,” Olsen said. “But the shift is so large that my model would still show Democrats having a not comfortable but clear majority.”
Olsen admitted his projection could be slightly off because it does not take into consideration a congressional district where voters select a member of congress from a different party than the president. Ultimately, he said his calculation balances out as congressional districts ebb and flow in favor of different political parties.
“While consistently a party loses some seats that they are demographically or partisanly favored to win, they win some seats that they are not favored to win and it always balances out in favor of the winning party,” Olsen told The Center Square.
Political forecaster VoteHub projects Democrats will flip 15 seats in the U.S. House during the midterm elections. The forecaster’s prediction would place Democratic candidate gains in line with Olsen’s estimates.
Olsen warned against higher estimates in favor of Democratic candidates. He said other polls often favor Democratic candidate wins without considering Republican voters without college degrees who are less likely to participate in polling.
The average national gas price is $4.29 per gallon, according to AAA. Average national diesel prices are up to $6.31 per gallon, likley amplifying frustrations with the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported energy prices rose by 20.4% in the last year ending in September.
“So far, we are seeing regional weaknesses that even when Republicans are leading, they are not leading by the margin that they should be leading in these agricultural heavy areas,” Olsen said.